December 16, 2005: Latest Probation Figures Published

The new Offender Management Caseload Statistics 2004 for England and Wales published by the Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate provide an authoritative picture of the scale and nature of probation intervention for last year. The total number of people under Probation Service supervision at 31st December 2004 was 209,460 -  5% more than in 2003.

In 2004, 177,390 people started Probation Service supervision; this was 1% up on 2003, and 16% higher than in 1994. This total includes 135,300 under community sentences and 48,500 under pre or post release supervision.

The number of women offenders commencing community sentence supervision rose by 47% in the period 1994-2004. The number of male offenders rose by 17% during the same period.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, those starting Community Rehabilitation Orders (CROs) represented the largest number of community sentence commencements in 2004 at 59,490 (44% of the total); Community Punishment Orders (CPOs) were the second largest group, at 55,430 (41% of the total).

Summary motoring offences was the largest offence group for males starting CROs, CPOs and Community Punishment and Rehabilitation Orders (CPROs), accounting for 26%, 28% and 32% respectively of commencements.

Theft and handling was the largest offence group for females starting these orders, accounting for 34%, 21% and 23% of commencements. Theft and handling was the largest offence group for both males and females starting Drug Treatment and Testing Orders (DTTOs) , accounting for 48% of male and 65% of female commencements.

During the period October to December 2004, 13% of all those starting Probation Service supervision were from a minority ethnic group (13% of males and 10% of females).

Of all offenders sentenced to a community sentence in the first quarter of 2002, a fifth were known to have no previous convictions for a standard list Offence.

The majority of terminations of all court orders (excluding DTTOs) were for positive reasons. Sixty five per cent of CROs, 66 per cent of CPOs, 58% cent of CPROs, and 32% of DTTOs were terminated for positive reasons.

‘Unadjusted’ reconviction rates are also reported. At a time when the effectiveness of probation intervention is of political importance, the reconviction figures offer some evidence of effectiveness It is specifically noted in the figures that unadjusted rates cannot be used to either assess effectiveness or changes in effectiveness over time, or to compare the effectiveness of prison with probation or other sentences. Nevertheless, it is stated that:

"...unadjusted rates provide useful descriptive statistics on the behaviour of offenders supervised by the probation service."

Of all offenders commencing community sentences in the first quarter of 2001, 59% were reconvicted within two years.

The rate of reconviction within two years of commencing the order was higher for male offenders ( at 61%) than for female offenders (at 50%) and also for offenders with one or more previous convictions (67%) than for first time offenders (32%).

Male offenders aged under 18 years were also more likely to be reconvicted than their older counterparts.