Is The Crime Rate Rising or Falling?
According to Home Office research:
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about half of people (51%) think they live in a lower than average crime area
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39% think crime in their area is about average
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11% think they live in a higher than average crime area.
People tend to have less negative perceptions about crime in their local area than nationally
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The proportion of people that perceive an increase in crime nationally (75%) is higher than those that perceive an increase in crime locally (36%)
This is evident across all crime types. But the evidence suggests that crime is generally falling, and the chance of being a victim is low in historical terms.
We have detailed statistics on crime. The British Crime Survey and police recorded crime differ in their coverage of crime. Overall, crime as measured by the BCS shows no change compared with the 2007/08 BCS. Police recorded crime show a 5 per cent decrease compared with 2007/08, with decreases in most crime types. The figures are as follows:
| Crime Recorded by the British Crime Survey | Crime Recorded by the Police |
|
All BCS crime stable (10.7 million crimes in 2008/09) |
All police recorded crime down 5% to 4.7 million crimes |
|
Violent crime stable |
Violence against the person down 6% |
|
Domestic burglary stable |
Domestic burglary up 1% |
|
Vehicle-related theft stable |
Offences against vehicles down 10% |
|
Theft from the person up 25% |
Theft from the person down 12% |
|
Vandalism stable |
Criminal damage down 10% |
| Risk of being a victim of crime up from 22% to 23% |
Robbery down 5% |
|
Drugs offences up 6% |
Source: Home Office(2010): Crime in England and Wales 2008/09
Have crime rates changed over the longer term?
Long-term trends show that BCS crime rose steadily from 1981 through to the early 1990s, peaking in 1995.
Home Office statistics confirm that, overall, crime then fell, making 1995 a significant turning point. The fall was substantial until 2004/05.
Since then, BCS crime has shown little overall change with the exception of a statistically significant reduction of 10 per cent in 2007/08 (the lowest ever level since the first results in 1981).